BusinessFlare®
Project workspace · auburndale.businessflare.net
Polk County · Downtown Redevelopment

Downtown Auburndale Market Analysis Civic Center site preparation for CRA developer solicitation

Kickoff · September 2026
00

Overview

BusinessFlare® is preparing the Downtown Auburndale Market Analysis for the City of Auburndale Community Redevelopment Agency. The engagement provides the analytical baseline the CRA needs to open a developer solicitation on the 2.3 acre Civic Center site on West Park Street.

Client
City of Auburndale CRA
County
Polk
Site
2.3 ac · Civic Center
Lead Deliverable
Market Analysis & Fitment
Base Intelligence in Hand
253K
Annual visits to Downtown Auburndale Park, 59 min avg dwell
58.4%
Downtown visitor crossover to Lakeland Square Mall, spending recapturable
9,558
Auburndale jobs 2025, up 16.9% since 2020
$2.41M
CRA tax increment: $940K City + $1.47M County per year
01

The Three-Piece Composition

The Civic Center site, Downtown Auburndale Park, and the downtown commercial core across the park form a three-piece composition. The park is the connective civic tissue. The Civic Center site, redeveloped intelligently on the third edge, completes the framing around the park and gives the park audience a reason to walk a block into downtown.

SITE

Civic Center Site

2.3 acres · West Park Street · CRA-acquired January 2024 · Currently holds the Civic Center, Senior Center, Rec Hall, Historical Museum, and Parks and Recreation offices, all being relocated by the City so the full 2.3 acres can be redeveloped

Analysis focus
ANCHOR

Downtown Auburndale Park

253,732 annual visits · 59 min avg dwell · 71,323 Saturday visits · Family destination

Connective tissue
CORE

Downtown Commercial Core

Across the park · Existing retail · Limited reasons to linger past errands

Activation opportunity
02

Scope & Deliverables

01
Trade Area IdentificationPrimary and secondary trade areas established through Placer.ai and ESRI drive-time gravity modeling, refined with CRA
Sep 22
02
Demographic Analysis & Qualitative ImplicationsTrade-area-specific demographic profile, income and housing implications, cohort read for use mix
Sep 22
03
Economic Analysis & Supply-Demand GapSupply and demand model with market potential overlay, retail gap, residential absorption, employment inventory
Oct 6
04
Fitment to Place & Fitment to Code3D site fitment scenarios, regulatory conditions read, infrastructure capacity, park-site integration, external forces
In progress
05
Fitment to Demand & FeasibilityUse program with pro forma validation, code amendment recommendations coordinated with SB 180 and 2050 Comp Plan
Oct 20
06
Key Business & Industry OpportunitiesTarget short list of operators and use categories the site can attract, formatted for the CRA developer solicitation
Oct 20
03

Data Tracker

Most upstream data is already in hand through the published Tier 1 and Tier 2 ECOSINT reports. The engagement layers stakeholder input and analytical synthesis on top of what BusinessFlare® has already invested in producing.

BusinessFlare® ECOSINT

Tier 1 and Tier 2
already published
Tier 1 Open Source Economic Drivers ReportPublished on Street Economics, downtown readPublished
Tier 2 Enhanced Insights ReportFull data overlay across CoStar, ESRI, Lightcast, Placer. Patreon, link pendingPublished
Downtown Auburndale Park Placer.ai analysis253,732 visits, trade area, crossover, dwell. Inside Tier 2Published
Drama Meter scoring5 out of 10 Green, top of band, healthy frictionScored
Next Economy Readiness ReportPublished on Street EconomicsPublished
Tax Base Exposure analysisPublished on Street Economics, latest run August 18 2026Published
Preliminary site review memoCamilo Lopez, Task 4 previewv01
Site fitment scenarios workbookCamilo Lopez, Fitment and Feasibility modelv02

BusinessFlare® GIS

shapefiles held,
ready to render
Open the interactive Auburndale mapGIS.BUSINESSFLARE.NET ›
CRA area trade zone overlaysTask 1, Placer trade area layered on GISQueued
Polk County zoning and future land use overlayTask 4, Fitment to CodeQueued
Retail leakage flow map to LakelandTask 3, visualize the recapture opportunityQueued

City of Auburndale

requests, minimized
Civic Center site survey and title workTask 4, confirm parcel geometry and any encumbrancesRequest
Current zoning and land use classifications on siteTask 4, Fitment to Code baselineRequest
Water, sewer, stormwater capacity readTask 4, infrastructure feasibilityRequest
CRA incentive program details and historyTask 5, calibrate incentive stack against likely developer programRequest
Stakeholder list for CRA-side inputTask 2 and Task 5, refinement conversationsRequest
Current 2050 Comp Plan draft and LDR update timelineTask 5, coordinate code recommendations with SB 180 horizonRequest

Data Subscriptions

active for the
engagement duration
CoStar commercial inventoryTasks 3 through 6, retail and multifamily supplyActive
Placer.ai foot traffic and trade areaTask 1 refinement and Task 4 activation readActive
ESRI Business AnalystTask 1 gravity modeling and Task 2 demographic depthActive
Lightcast AnalystTask 3 labor and industry structure, commute flowsActive
Polk County property appraiser dataTask 4, parcel and taxable value verificationAccessible
Published or gathered In progress Queued, ours to pull Request from City
04

What the Analysis Must Support

The market analysis is not the endpoint. It is the analytical baseline that supports three downstream CRA decisions. Every deliverable is written to answer them.

Support 1

CRA Board Adoption

November 2026 presentation of the market findings and the use program with pro forma validation. The Board needs a defensible read to move forward with the developer solicitation.

Support 2

Developer Solicitation

The analytical baseline the CRA uses in the solicitation the Board will authorize. The Task 6 target business and industry short list feeds directly into who the CRA invites.

Support 3

Proposal Evaluation

The same BusinessFlare® team is available to evaluate developer proposals when they come in, using the analysis as the baseline against which every pro forma is stress-tested.

  • Market support for a mixed-use program at this site
  • Financial feasibility a private developer will underwrite
  • Code amendments needed to enable the program
  • SB 180 constraints on enactment before October 1, 2027
  • Coordination with the 2050 Comprehensive Plan effort
  • Interim activation before permanent redevelopment
  • Retail leakage recapture from Lakeland
  • Sports tourism economy at Lake Myrtle Complex
05

Team & Contacts

BusinessFlare® · Direction
Kevin Crowder
Project Director
kevin@businessflare.net
BusinessFlare® · Delivery
Ruth Buchanan
Project Manager
ruth@businessflare.net
BusinessFlare® · Operations
Alicia Alleyne
Chief Operating Officer
alicia@businessflare.net
City of Auburndale · Client
Amy Palmer
Assistant City Manager / CRA Manager
apalmer@auburndalefl.com
863.965.5530
06

Documents

07

Next

  • Kickoff meeting with Amy Palmer, agenda in preparation
  • Task 1 trade area refinement in collaboration with the CRA
  • Task 4 fitment scenarios advance from v02 to v03
  • Widen Ruth's OneDrive share to the Auburndale client folder